Fed meeting today kicks off rate cut that Powell says will pause in 2026, but his final answer about future policy could shock markets

The Federal Reserve kicks off its final meeting of 2025 today with markets widely expecting a third consecutive interest rate cut. Chair Jerome Powell is set to face tough questions about the central bank’s aggressive plan to pause future cuts through 2026. The biggest wildcard: how a divided Fed will signal confidence in its more cautious approach ahead.

Markets Price In High-Probability Rate Cut as Fed Concludes 2025

Financial markets are showing 90% confidence that the Federal Reserve will deliver a 0.25% rate cut today when the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) concludes its two-day meeting. This would lower the federal funds rate target to the 3.5%-3.75% range.

The cut would represent the third reduction this year following moves in September and November. Since September 2024, the Fed has cut rates six times total, bringing the benchmark rate down 1.5 percentage points from peaks of 5.25%-5.50%. For Americans, this translates to lower borrowing costs on mortgages, auto loans, and credit card rates.

Unlike previous easing cycles, today’s cut isn’t primarily about stimulating economic growth. Instead, it reflects the Fed’s ongoing effort to support labor market stability as inflation has cooled to 2.7% year-over-year.

Powell Faces Questions About Divided Fed Leadership on 2026 Strategy

The real drama unfolds during Powell’s post-decision news conference when he must explain how the Fed plans to navigate internal disagreement over future policy. An unusually divided committee has created complications for Powell’s consensus-building approach.

Some Fed officials have expressed unease about continued easing, according to recent reporting. These hawks argue the economy is strong enough to withstand higher rates. Powell appears set to navigate this tension by cutting rates today while simultaneously signaling a higher bar for further easing going forward.

The challenge: deliver on market expectations for a cut while convincing skeptics that 2026 will look dramatically different. Powell’s communications about future policy will heavily influence how investors interpret both the rate cut and the Fed’s trajectory.

Metric	Expected Level After Cut
Federal Funds Rate	3.50%-3.75%
Total Cuts in 2025	3 (September, November, December)
Total Cuts Since September 2024	6 totaling 1.5 percentage points
Expected 2026 Cuts (September Projection)	1 rate cut only

The Hawkish Turn: What 2026 Rate Pause Means for Borrowers and Savers

Perhaps the most significant message Powell must convey today isn’t about the coming cut, but about what doesn’t come next. September projections showed Fed officials expect just one additional rate cut in 2026, with the benchmark rate ending that year in the 3.25%-3.50% range.

This marked a sharp pivot from earlier expectations of three or more cuts. The shift reflects stickier-than-expected inflation, strong employment data, and incoming Trump administration policies that could pressure prices higher. For borrowers expecting rates to keep falling, this signals a cooling reality: the easing cycle likely ends after today’s cut.

Savers and investors may finally see improvement. Higher rates for longer mean savings accounts, money market funds, and CDs will maintain elevated yields throughout 2026, providing better returns than many experienced over the past decade.

Trump Pressure and Leadership Uncertainty Add Complexity to Powell’s Final Meeting

President Donald Trump has publicly pressured the Fed to continue cutting rates, stating Powell’s successor should maintain an easing bias. This creates political headwinds as Powell tries to maintain Fed independence during his final meeting as chair.

Powell’s term ends in May 2026, and his successor has already been nominated and confirmed. The timing adds unusual pressure to this final meeting, as markets will scrutinize whether Powell is prioritizing political convenience over inflation control. His communication today will set the tone for how aggressively his replacement proceeds.

Financial markets remain divided about 2026 prospects. Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows investors still price in a modest probability of additional cuts next year, but these odds remain significantly lower than they were just weeks ago. The narrative has shifted from an easing cycle to a potential pause cycle.

What Questions Will Powell Face About Fed Independence, Inflation, and Economic Stability?

During today’s news conference, investors will be watching for Powell’s answers on several critical fronts. First, how aggressively will he defend the pause in 2026 against criticism from the Trump administration? Second, what early warning signs might trigger additional cuts if economic conditions deteriorate faster than expected?

Third, and perhaps most directly relevant to your wallet: how long should Americans expect elevated borrowing costs to persist? With mortgage rates hovering above 7% for many buyers and credit card rates in double digits, Powell’s guidance on the duration of tight policy carries enormous real-world consequences.

The statement and press conference are scheduled for 2:00 PM ET Wednesday, with live coverage available through major financial outlets. Markets typically react sharply to Powell’s comments, so bond yields and stock futures could move significantly once trading commentary ends. Investors holding debt-sensitive portfolios should monitor closely.

Sources

• CNN – Live coverage of Fed meeting and rate decision announcement
• Reuters – Analysis of Fed pause expectations and 2026 projections
• Bloomberg – Commentary on hawkish rate cut signaling and Powell’s consensus challenges